March 2019 REC Projection

Revenue Estimating Conference's estimate of general fund receipts as of March 15, 2019.

Date Published	03/15/2019
File(s)	19-03_rec_final_1.pdf
Fiscal Year	2019, 2020, 2021
Topic(s)	REC Projections

Document Text Version

REVENUE ESTIMATING CONFERENCE
ESTIMATE OF GENERAL FUND RECEIPTS
March 15, 2019
($ in millions)

					% Change	12/18 REC	% Change	03/19 REC	% Change	12/18 REC	% Change	03/19 REC	% Change
		FY16	FY17	FY18	FY 18 Act vs.	FY19	FY 19 Est vs.	FY19	FY 19 Est vs.	FY 20	FY 20 Est vs.	FY 20	FY 20 Est vs.
		ACTUAL	ACTUAL	ACTUAL	FY 17 Act	ESTIMATE	FY 18 Act	ESTIMATE	FY 18 Act	ESTIMATE	FY 19 Act	ESTIMATE	FY 19 Est
TAX RECEIPTS
	Personal Inc. Tax	4,355.5	4,469.0	4,746.7	6.2%	4,911.4	3.5%	4,874.5	2.7%	4,838.4	-1.5%	4,830.8	-0.9%
	Sales/Use Tax	2,810.5	2,812.3	2,941.5	4.6%	3,146.5	7.0%	3,113.5	5.8%	3,388.3	7.7%	3,316.1	6.5%
	Corporate Income Tax	520.5	549.7	565.0	2.8%	624.9	10.6%	652.8	15.5%	637.3	2.0%	653.0	0.0%
	Inheritance Tax	91.8	86.1	83.1	-3.5%	85.6	3.0%	85.6	3.0%	87.3	2.0%	89.0	4.0%
	Insurance Premium Tax	119.7	114.8	121.8	6.1%	122.5	0.6%	139.4	14.4%	126.5	3.3%	129.4	-7.2%
	Beer Tax	14.1	14.0	13.7	-2.1%	13.7	0.0%	13.7	0.0%	13.6	-0.7%	13.7	0.0%
	Franchise Tax	52.1	53.8	46.7	-13.2%	43.4	-7.1%	41.3	-11.6%	49.0	12.9%	50.1	21.3%
	Miscellaneous Tax	1.5	1.4	1.7	21.4%	1.6	-5.9%	15.5	811.8%	1.6	0.0%	26.6	71.6%

Total Tax Receipts		7,965.7	8,101.1	8,520.2	5.2%	8,949.6	5.0%	8,936.3	4.9%	9,142.0	2.1%	9,108.7	1.9%

OTHER RECEIPTS
	Institutional Payments	12.1	11.6	12.0	3.4%	10.1	-15.8%	10.0	-16.7%	10.6	5.0%	10.0	0.0%
	Liquor Profits	112.3	116.1	118.1	1.7%	119.1	0.8%	119.1	0.8%	119.1	0.0%	119.1	0.0%
	Interest	4.1	2.2	4.7	113.6%	6.0	27.7%	8.2	74.5%	6.5	8.3%	8.9	8.5%
	Fees	28.1	25.3	26.1	3.2%	26.0	-0.4%	26.5	1.5%	26.2	0.8%	26.3	-0.8%
	Judicial Revenue	97.7	94.3	97.4	3.3%	97.4	0.0%	97.4	0.0%	97.4	0.0%	97.4	0.0%
	Miscellaneous Receipts	42.7	60.6	52.3	-13.7%	50.4	-3.6%	53.6	2.5%	48.6	-3.6%	48.5	-9.5%
	Racing & Gaming	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	2.3	0.0%	2.3	100.0%	2.3	0.0%	2.3	0.0%

Total Other Receipts		297.0	310.1	310.6	0.2%	311.3	0.2%	317.1	2.1%	310.7	-0.2%	312.5	-1.5%

Total Gross Receipts		8,262.7	8,411.2	8,830.8	5.0%	9,260.9	4.9%	9,253.4	4.8%	9,452.7	2.1%	9,421.2	1.8%

	Accruals (net)	14.2	73.5	48.0		19.0	-60.4%	26.0		7.5	-60.5%	14.5
	Refunds	(1,018.3)	(1,059.8)	(1,135.1)	7.1%	(1,163.0)	2.5%	(1,156.0)	1.8%	(1,159.0)	-0.3%	(1,153.0)	-0.3%
	School Infrastructure Transfer	(466.9)	(460.4)	(480.8)	4.4%	(510.8)	6.2%	(512.3)	6.6%	(548.0)	7.3%	(549.5)	7.3%

Total Accrual General Fund Receipts		6,791.7	6,964.5	7,262.9	4.3%	7,606.1	4.7%	7,611.1	4.8%	7,753.2	1.9%	7,733.2	1.6%

Transfers
	Lottery	85.5	78.3	84.6	8.0%	88.0	4.0%	88.0	4.0%	89.0	1.1%	89.0	1.1%	03/19 REC	% Change
	TTF Tax Credit Transfer	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		FY 21	FY 20 Est vs.
	Other Transfers*	43.9	197.2	36.4	-81.5%	34.5	-5.2%	34.5	-5.2%	26.2	-24.1%	26.2	-24.1%	ESTIMATE	FY 19 Est

Total Transfers		129.4	275.5	121.0	-56.1%	122.5	1.2%	122.5	1.2%	115.2	-6.0%	115.2	-6.0%

Net General Fund Revenues		6,921.1	7,240.0	7,383.9	2.0%	7,728.6	4.7%	7,733.6	4.7%	7,868.4	1.8%	7,848.4	1.5%	8,050.0	2.6%
Estimated Gambling Revenues Transferred
	To Other Funds	287.1	288.8	292.1	1.1%	293.6	0.5%	293.6	0.5%	295.1	0.5%	295.1	0.5%
Amount of Interest Earned on Reserve
	Funds (transfer to RIIF)	4.2	6.1	7.7	26.2%	12.0	55.8%	12.0	55.8%	12.0	0.0%	12.0	0.0%

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March 2019 REC Projection