May 2020 REC Projection

Revenue Estimating Conference's estimate of general fund receipts as of May 29, 2020.

Date Published	05/29/2020
File(s)	20-05_rec_final.pdf
Fiscal Year	2020, 2021
Topic(s)	REC Projections

Document Text Version

REVENUE ESTIMATING CONFERENCE
ESTIMATE OF GENERAL FUND RECEIPTS
May 29, 2020
($ in millions)

					% Change	03/20 REC	% Change	05/20 REC	% Change	03/20 REC	% Change	05/20 REC	% Change
		FY17	FY18	FY19	FY 19 Act vs.	FY20	FY 20 Est vs.	FY20	FY 20 Est vs.	FY 21	FY 21 Est vs.	FY 21	FY 21 Est vs.
		ACTUAL	ACTUAL	ACTUAL	FY 18 Act	ESTIMATE	FY 19 Act	ESTIMATE	FY 19 Act	ESTIMATE	FY 20 Est	ESTIMATE	FY 20 Est
TAX RECEIPTS
	Personal Inc. Tax	4,469.0	4,746.7	4,944.0	4.2%	4,995.1	1.0%	4,613.2	-6.7%	5,050.6	1.1%	5,141.4	11.4%
	Sales/Use Tax	2,812.3	2,941.5	3,045.5	3.5%	3,233.4	6.2%	3,147.8	3.4%	3,342.1	3.4%	3,174.6	0.9%
	Corporate Income Tax	549.7	565.0	706.3	25.0%	726.5	2.9%	648.3	-8.2%	692.2	-4.7%	748.4	15.4%
	Inheritance Tax	86.1	83.1	80.7	-2.9%	77.5	-4.0%	88.8	10.0%	81.4	5.0%	87.0	-2.0%
	Insurance Premium Tax	114.8	121.8	153.4	25.9%	135.2	-11.9%	145.9	-4.9%	138.4	2.4%	152.3	4.4%
	Beer Tax	14.0	13.7	13.5	-1.5%	13.5	0.0%	12.6	-6.7%	13.5	0.0%	12.9	2.4%
	Franchise Tax	53.8	46.7	59.6	27.6%	56.4	-5.4%	57.0	-4.4%	62.5	10.8%	73.3	28.6%
	Miscellaneous Tax	1.4	1.7	14.1	729.4%	24.0	70.2%	24.4	73.0%	20.6	-14.2%	20.4	-16.4%

Total Tax Receipts		8,101.1	8,520.2	9,017.1	5.8%	9,261.6	2.7%	8,738.0	-3.1%	9,401.3	1.5%	9,410.3	7.7%

OTHER RECEIPTS
	Institutional Payments	11.6	12.0	11.2	-6.7%	10.6	-5.4%	11.2	0.0%	10.6	0.0%	11.2	0.0%
	Liquor Profits	116.1	118.1	125.6	6.4%	129.1	2.8%	129.1	2.8%	129.1	0.0%	129.1	0.0%
	Interest	2.2	4.7	9.0	91.5%	13.7	52.2%	15.3	70.0%	13.7	0.0%	15.3	0.0%
	Fees	25.3	26.1	28.9	10.7%	27.6	-4.5%	30.8	6.6%	27.6	0.0%	30.8	0.0%
	Judicial Revenue	94.3	97.4	95.4	-2.1%	95.4	0.0%	95.4	0.0%	95.4	0.0%	95.4	0.0%
	Miscellaneous Receipts	60.6	52.3	62.2	18.9%	51.7	-16.9%	52.0	-16.4%	52.0	0.6%	52.0	0.0%
	Racing & Gaming	0.0	0.0	2.2	0.0%	2.2	0.0%	2.2	0.0%	2.2	0.0%	2.2	0.0%

Total Other Receipts		310.1	310.6	334.5	7.7%	330.3	-1.3%	336.0	0.4%	330.6	0.1%	336.0	0.0%

Total Gross Receipts		8,411.2	8,830.8	9,351.6	5.9%	9,591.9	2.6%	9,074.0	-3.0%	9,731.9	1.5%	9,746.3	7.4%

	Accruals (net)	73.5	48.0	19.2		16.8	-12.5%	361.1		14.7	-12.5%	(350.9)
	Refunds	(1,059.8)	(1,135.1)	(1,131.9)	-0.3%	(1,093.0)	-3.4%	(1,085.5)	-4.1%	(1,069.5)	-2.2%	(1,104.0)	1.7%
	School Infrastructure Transfer	(460.4)	(480.8)	(503.1)	4.6%	(534.0)	6.1%	(511.4)	1.6%	(550.4)	3.1%	(519.8)	1.6%

Total Accrual General Fund Receipts		6,964.5	7,262.9	7,735.8	6.5%	7,981.7	3.2%	7,838.2	1.3%	8,126.7	1.8%	7,771.6	-0.8%

Transfers
	Lottery	78.3	84.6	90.4	6.9%	83.0	-8.2%	77.0	-14.8%	84.0	1.2%	79.0	2.6%	05/20 REC	% Change
	Other Transfers*	197.2	36.4	32.6	-10.4%	26.0	-20.2%	26.0	-20.2%	26.0	0.0%	26.0	0.0%	FY22	FY 22 Est vs.
														ESTIMATE	FY 21 Est
Total Transfers		275.5	121.0	123.0	1.7%	109.0	-11.4%	103.0	-16.3%	110.0	0.9%	105.0	1.9%

Net General Fund Revenues		7,240.0	7,383.9	7,858.8	6.4%	8,090.7	3.0%	7,941.2	1.0%	8,236.7	1.8%	7,876.6	-0.8%	8,199.5	4.1%
Estimated Gambling Revenues Transferred
	To Other Funds	288.8	292.1	291.4	-0.2%	293.6	0.8%	220.7	-24.3%	293.6	0.0%	268.6	21.7%
Amount of Interest Earned on Reserve
	Funds (transfer to RIIF)	6.1	7.7	14.7	90.9%	16.0	8.8%	16.0	8.8%	15.0	-6.3%	17.0	6.3%

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May 2020 REC Projection